Whats next for cotton linter as Xinjiang seed cotton harvest accelerates?

Seed cotton picking and delivery have accelerated recently. Harvesting in Northern Xinjiang is entering the late stage, while machine-picked one in Southern Xinjiang is ramping up rapidly. Seed cotton purchase prices remain firm with an upward bias. New-season cottonseed supply has expanded, staying at relatively high levels. Cotton linters are gradually coming onto the market, with prices mostly steady for now.

1. Accelerated seed cotton arrival with firm prices

New cotton has entered a concentrated marketing window since the National Day holiday, and seed cotton harvesting in Xinjiang has picked up speed. Ginners are actively purchasing seed cotton. Harvest progress in Northern Xinjiang has exceeded 70%, with most areas moving into the late harvest phase. Picking and delivery in Southern Xinjiang are speeding up, reaching nearly 40% completion.

During the National Day break, seed cotton purchase prices dipped first then rebounded. The lower procurement price for machine-picked seed cotton stood at roughly 7.1-7.2yuan/kg. Prices kept climbing after the holiday, showing strong resistance to declines. At present, more than half of Xinjiang's cotton has been harvested. Hand-picked seed cotton is quoted at around 8.4yuan/kg. Premium machine-picked seed cotton with 38% net ginning outturn has risen to 7.4-7.6yuan/kg, with the higher above 7.7yuan/kg, about 1.3-1.4yuan/kg higher than the same period last year.

2. Cottonseed and cotton linter rides the upward tide

Yield per mu of seed cotton across Xinjiang has declined: average yield loss in Northern Xinjiang is 50 kg/mu, while Southern Xinjiang sees a drop of around 20 kg/mu. Coupled with reduced cotton planting area in Xinjiang for the 2026/27 season, many ginners fear cotton output losses will exceed expectations. Most ginners have ramped up purchases recently, and overall buying progress is notably faster than last year. Cotton farmers are reluctant to sell at lower prices, and mild buying competition has emerged in some regions, supporting firm seed cotton purchase prices.

The fall in new-cotton yield and total output is larger than the earlier expectation of a slight moderate decline. The market worries about insufficient cotton supply in the 2026/27 season, which will lift the price benchmark for cotton and cotton by-products. Although cottonseed supply has increased recently, prices remain relatively high. Cottonseed bottomed at 2,100yuan/mt last year, while this year prices mostly hold above 2,500yuan/mt. Current spot cottonseed prices in Xinjiang are about 2,550-2,600yuan/mt, far above year-ago levels. Cotton linter supply is gradually rising, with prices generally stable and no sharp volatility. Cotton linter for industry-grade refined cotton in Xinjiang is priced at 4,300-4,400yuan/mt, and that in inland areas is around 4,700yuan/mt, roughly 1,200yuan/mt higher than last year.

In summary, new cotton harvesting in inland China and Xinjiang has accelerated. Northern Xinjiang has finished over 70% of seed cotton picking, with harvests expected to wind down after Oct 20. Southern Xinjiang regions have completed more than 30% of seed cotton harvesting, and picking is projected to conclude in early Nov. New cottonseed supply has expanded recently and remains at elevated levels. Cotton linter arrivals are rising with prices steady for the time being. Both products trade significantly higher than the same period in 2025.