MEG market stable, inventory build on track

发布日期：2026-10-21 作者：CCFGroup 点击：

-Crude retained a geopolitical premium from unresolved US-Iran tensions and Saudi-Houthi risks, while recovering Hormuz traffic capped upside.

-China's MEG operating rate was 80-81% as of 30-Sep, with syngas-based MEG at 88-89%; October rates are expected at 77-80%.

-Three MEG vessels exited Hormuz during the holiday, while October imports remain estimated at 250-270kt.

-Holiday arrivals were smooth, with more than 80kt reaching main ports and 30-40kt reaching secondary ports.

-The MEG balance is still expected to move gradually into inventory build from October, with polyester demand the key variable.

Crude: geopolitical support, but limited upside

Crude remained supported during the holiday as US-Iran relations showed little progress and Saudi-Houthi tensions kept Red Sea supply risks elevated.

At the same time, improving traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reduced part of the disruption premium. Lower Saudi OSPs for Asia and G7 reserve releases also eased pressure on physical markets.

Key variables remain Hormuz flow sustainability, Saudi pipeline operations and progress in US-Iran talks.

MEG: operations stable, arrivals improve

MEG plant operations were broadly stable over the holiday, with no unexpected shutdowns or restarts reported. As of 30-Sep, China's overall MEG operating rate was around 80-81%, while syngas-based MEG stood at 88-89%.

Three MEG vessels were observed leaving Hormuz for India, Taiwan Prov. and China. October imports are still estimated at around 250-270kt.

Holiday arrivals were also relatively smooth, with more than 80kt reaching main East China ports and another 30-40kt arriving at secondary ports. Domestic cargo flows were active as well.

Outlook: October inventory build remains the base case

The holiday brought no major change to the MEG outlook. Port inventories are likely to rise after the holiday, while October domestic operating rates are expected to remain high at around 77-80%.

The key question is now demand. If polyester operating rates remain weak, the expected inventory build from October should become increasingly visible.