Global air freight forecast to stabilise in 2024: Xeneta

发布日期：2023-12-06 作者：Global Textiles 点击：

INSIGHTS

Though the global air freight market has been on a rollercoaster ride of late, 2024 could see a return of 'classic seasonality', according to Xeneta, whose Air Freight Outlook 2024 highlights muted consumer spending as a key factor in 2024.
Demand for air freight is predicted to grow by 1-2 per cent next year and supply is expected to grow by 2-4 per cent.

Though the global air freight market has been on a rollercoaster ride of late, next year could see a return of ‘classic seasonality’, according to Oslo-based ocean and air freight rate benchmarking and intelligence platform Xeneta.

The company’s chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw said in its 2024 Air Freight Outlook released recently that 2024 could be an opportunity for shippers to catch their breath after the volatility of the past few years.

“The rapid rate decline, which started earlier this year, has calmed down in recent months. It seems to be the market has a new baseline, from which I expect classic seasonality patterns to emerge,” he was quoted as saying in a company release.

The industry saw the cost of transporting goods by air skyrocket during COVID-19 before plummeting back down again this year, albeit they are still 32 per cent up on pre-pandemic levels.
The Xeneta Air Freight Outlook 2024 highlights muted consumer spending as a key factor for the year ahead. Demand for air freight in 2023 remains down by 8 per cent compared to pre-pandemic and is only predicted to grow by 1-2 per cent next year. Supply is expected to grow by 2-4 per cent in 2024.
“The key indicators are not great from a demand point of view. It’s muted and there’s a lot of uncertainty in the world,” Van de Wouw said.
Xeneta data reveals an increasing trend for longer term contracts, but Van de Wouw believes this presents a potentially perilous situation for freight forwarders in 2024.
“The problem is freight forwarders are selling long term contracts but buying the majority of volume from carriers on the short term spot market. If the rates go up, there is a serious issue,” he noted.
The Outlook also highlights the continued recovery of capacity putting downward pressure on rates as a key theme for 2024, along with environmental sustainability and improving schedule reliability in ocean freight shipping.